Forecasting Conflicts using N-gram Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
Analysing international political behaviour based on similar precedent circumstances is one of the basic cognitive devices that policymakers use to define and evaluate current situations. These analyses are based on international interactions and events that occur between political actors in different periods of history. In quantitative researches on international relations, these political behaviours are coded in terms of event data which, in simple terms, describe ”who did (when/where) what to whom” [1]. Formally, event data are generated by examining newspaper headlines on a daily basis (or up to several times a day when there are many important altercations), determining the two main actors involved in that event, and assigning a numerical code for the type of interaction between them.
منابع مشابه
Forecasting Conflicts Using N-Grams Models
Analyzing international political behavior based on similar precedent circumstances is one of the basic techniques that policymakers use to monitor and assess current situations. Our goal is to investigate how to analyze geopolitical conflicts as sequences of events and to determine what probabilistic models are suitable to perform these analyses. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of N...
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